Trump 2017: Where Do Markets Go Now?

Trump 2017: Where Do Markets Go Now?

November 10, 2016
November 10, 2016
New York City
New York City
 
 

Info

In a post-Brexit landscape, were markets more priced-in than anticipated?

To say Donald Trump’s U.S. Presidential win was a surprise to most political pundits would be an understatement.

Some of the most popular prognosticators were predicting as high as 80-90% chance of a Clinton win with most around 65-70% immediately prior to Tuesday’s vote.

That said, there were several signs over the past few months that markets were pricing in higher odds of a Trump victory than the prognosticators expected such as the persistent rise in interest rates and underperformance of rate-sensitive assets.

The question now is what can we glean from Trump’s policy proposals over the past year to get a sense of the impact on markets?

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Highlights15

Morgan Stanley
 
founded1935
founde3Harold Stanley
Donald Trump
 
bornJune 14, 1946
Brexit
 
The United Kingdom (UK) intends to withdraw from the European Union (EU), a process commonly known as Brexit, as a result of a June 2016 referendum in which 51.9% voted to leave the EU. The separation process is complex, causing political and economic changes for the UK and other countries.
Mexican peso
 
The Mexican peso (sign: $; code: MXN) is the currency of Mexico.

Photos - Trump 2017: Where Do Markets Go Now?254

Donald Trump

Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American businessman, television personality, author, politician, and the Republican Party nominee for President of the United States in the 2016 election. He is chairman of The Trump Organization, which is the principal holding company for his real estate ventures and other business interests.

Born and raised in New York City, Trump received a bachelor's degree in economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in 1968. While attending college, Trump worked in his father Fred Trump's real estate and construction firm. He assumed control of the business in 1971, while renaming it The Trump Organization. During his career, Trump has built skyscrapers, hotels, casinos, golf courses, and numerous other developments, many of which bear his name, including Trump Place in Manhattan. He sought the Reform Party presidential nomination in 2000, but withdrew before voting began. Listed by Forbes among the wealthiest 400 of The World's Billionaires, Trump and his businesses, as well as his personal life, have for decades received much media exposure, as have his political views. He hosted The Apprentice, a reality television show on NBC, from 2004 to 2015.

In June 2015, Trump announced his candidacy for president as a Republican and quickly emerged as the front-runner for his party's nomination. In May 2016, his remaining Republican rivals suspended their campaigns, and in July he was formally nominated for president at the 2016 Republican National Convention.

Trump's presidential campaign has received extensive media coverage and international attention. Many of his statements in interviews, on Twitter, and at campaign rallies have been controversial, and some of the rallies have been accompanied by protests or riots. His platform includes opposition to trade agreements that he regards as unfair, such as NAFTA and TPP, renegotiation of U.S.–China trade deals, immigration enforcement such as the building of a wall along the U.S.–Mexico border, reform of veterans' care, replacement of the Affordable Care Act, and tax cuts. Trump has suggested temporarily banning foreign Muslims from entering the United States, which he later said would focus on those from countries with a "proven history" of terrorism, and he also advocated raising the level of vetting for immigration from those nations.

Markets

A stock market, equity market or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers (a loose network of economic transactions, not a physical facility or discrete entity) of stocks (also called shares); these may include securities listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately.

Key Issues12

Videos40

News Articles11

Pence Replaces Christie as Head of Trump Transition Team
Newser  –  November 11, 2016
(Newser) – Chris Christie headed Donald Trump's presidential transition team for months ... to "help prepare a transformative government ready to lead from day one," CNBC reports. Christie has been bumped down to vice chair of the transition team ...
CNBC EXCLUSIVE: CNBC TRANSCRIPT: DOUBLINE CAPITAL CO-FOUNDER & CEO JEFFREY GUNDLACH SPEAKS WITH CNBC’S “FAST MONEY HALFTIME REPORT" TODAY
nbcumv.com  –  November 11, 2016
THE BOND MARKET MIGHT BE CLOSED TODAY, BUT IT'S BEEN AN AMAZING WEEK FOR YIELDS WHICH HAVE SURGED ON THE BACK OF DONALD TRUMP'S VICTORY ... I'VE HEARD IT ON CNBC OVER AND OVER AGAIN. I AGREE WITH IT. THE YIELD CURVE HAS BEEN STEEPENING AND POSITIVE ...
Africa's uncertainty looms amid Donald Trump's victory
cnbcafrica.com  –  November 11, 2016
Following the historic election of Donald Trump, the African continent remains uncertain of ... Professor Doctor Jeff Kaluyu, Kenyan Presidential aspirant joins CNBC Africa for more.
Who could be Donald Trump's chief of staff and who could be in his Cabinet?
CBS News  –  November 11, 2016
President-elect Donald Trump is considering his campaign CEO Steve Bannon for ... the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said on CNBC Friday that he hasn’t sought the position of Treasury Secretary and doesn’t expect an offer.
Donald Trump opposed Wall Street regulations in past interviews
CNN Money  –  November 11, 2016
Donald Trump remained relatively silent on financial regulation during ... In interviews with Fox News and CNBC in 2011 and 2012, Trump expressed his deep disbelief in the effectiveness of regulations in general. "I think regulation, all it does is make ...
Donald Trump Reportedly Advised to On-Board Jamie Dimon as Treasury Secretary: CNBC
financemagnates.com  –  November 10, 2016
Donald Trump has been reportedly advised by his closest to pick the CEO of JPMorgan, Jamie Dimon is treasury secretary, CNBC has reported. With the nominations starting to flow in, volatility across multiple asset classes continues – bonds are falling ...
Trump Team Considering Dimon for Treasury Secretary, CNBC Says
Bloomberg  –  November 10, 2016
President-Elect Donald Trump’s advisers are considering JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon for Treasury secretary, CNBC reported, citing two people familiar with the matter. Dimon isn’t interested, one of the people told CNBC.
Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal has put aside his bitter clash with Donald Trump — for now
The Business Insider  –  November 10, 2016
President-elect Donald Trump Mark Wilson/Getty Images In December 2015 ... know Trump is committed "to all of the international treaties that he had," he said on CNBC. Prince Alwaleed, the billionaire chairman of Kingdom Holding Co who also owns shares ...
Trump economic adviser stresses growth over Fed talk: CNBC
Reuters  –  November 10, 2016
WASHINGTON A senior economic adviser to President-elect Donald Trump stressed economic growth over discussion ... rather quickly," adviser David Malpass said in an interview with CNBC. (Reporting by Doina Chiacu)
Reports: Donald Trump considering JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon for treasury secretary spot
CITY A.M.  –  November 10, 2016
Although Donald Trump's policies might still look a little vague ... on JP Morgan chairman and chief executive Jamie Dimon as treasury secretary, according to CNBC. However, chances of Dimon joining up with Trump for a career in politics look slim.
Who will Donald Trump choose to help 'make America great again'?
Sky News HD  –  November 9, 2016
Sources also told US broadcaster CNBC that JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon was considered ... Others, including Mr Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr, and venture capitalist Robert Grady, have been mooted for Interior Secretary. Politico has also reported that ...

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